The Value of Wind Information in Wholesale Electricity Market: Evidence from U.S. Midwest

[Link to current draft]

Abstract: Electricity generation by wind power is growing quickly due to policy supports and technological advances, but the fluctuating wind generation brings significant uncertainty to market competition. This study examines how information about wind generation affects strategic competition among electricity producers in the U.S. Midwest wholesale electricity market, where firms that operate both thermal and wind plants have better forecasts of wind generation than firms that only own thermal plants. Using detailed price and bid data, I empirically explore how wind generation affects local market structures through transmission congestion, and find that thermal bidding is more responsive to wind supply changes for firms that have better wind information. I then construct a strategic bidding model to estimate firms’ private wind information, which determines their beliefs about local competition and explains their supply bids. I find that my model – with estimated information parameters – predicts firms’ bidding behaviors and actual market results better than the standard oligopoly model of price competition. Using the model, I predict that when all firms are provided accurate wind information, it would greatly increase consumer surplus and market efficiency.

1. Paying for Scarcity at the Right Time: Evidence from PJM Capacity Market Reform (working paper)

2. Authoritarian Environmentalism and Public Attitudes toward the Environment in China (working paper) with Dali Yang

3. Does Retail Deregulation Bring Strategic Wholesale Buyers? Evidence from Midwest Wholesale Electricity Market (work in progress)

4. Ozone Monitoring and Strategic Fuel Switching of US Midwest Power Plants (work in progress)

PhD Courses (Teaching Assistant)

• Advanced Microeconomics II (Harris PhD Core), Damon Jones, Winter 2018

• Environmental and Energy Economics III (Econ PhD Field), Koichiro Ito, Spring 2017 & 2018

• Analysis of Microeconomic Data (Econ PhD Field), Dan Black, Winter 2017

MPP (Master of Public Policy) Courses (Teaching Assistant)

• Environmental Economics: Theory and Applications (Harris MPP Field), Steve Cicala, Winter 2019

• Advanced Microeconomics (Harris MPP Core), Dan Black, Autumn 2017

• Statistical Methods and Applications II (Harris MPP Core), Bruce Meyer, Winter 2016

• Harris Mathematics Pre-Core Camp, John Boller, Summer 2016